‘War fatigue comes quickly’

“In 60 or 90 days we are going to start losing our privileged legal position“said Republican Senator Kevin Cramer. “I don’t know of any scenario in which a war could improve public opinion,” he added before ruling that “war fatigue is a real factor and it can happen very quickly.

Another Republican senator, Thom Tillishas said that despite being on Trump’s side “if in three weeks we are still in the same place [en relación con Irán] We are going to have a very serious problem.”

“I don’t think American public opinion is prepared for a long-term war,” declared Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito. “The loss of life is difficult for us to take after the prolonged campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq,” he added. “We can’t afford to lose and that raises the question of how long it takes to win.” In parallel, the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, John Thune, has said that “sincerely wait” that 60 days, or at most 90 days, are enough to end the war.

The statements by Cramer, Tillis, Capito and Thune show the concern that exists in the Republican Party about the possibility that the war against Iran will first drag on for more weeks than necessary and then, perhaps, months. Because, as Capito indicates, that would mean beginning to draw parallels with the so-called “eternal wars” that began at the beginning of the century. by George W. Bush in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some conflicts that Trump has been campaigning against since 2015, when he decided to get seriously into politics.

“We are not the Bushes,” he declared to the American media Traffic lights a senior White House official who asked not to be named. “I don’t want to tie my hands too much beyond what we’ve already said: we hope to have everything wrapped up in four or five weeks and we’re optimistic about that.”

However, the magazine Politico has reported that the United States Central Command – the one in charge of supervising military operations in the Persian Gulf area, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa – has requested the Pentagon sending intelligence officers with the idea that they support operations against Iran “for at least 100 days and probably until September.”

Senator Cramer’s reference to “60 or 90 days” before losing “our privileged legal position” has to do with what current legislation establishes. And according to the War Powers Resolution, a federal law passed in 1973, Trump has 60 days of margin, once hostilities with a foreign power perceived as a threat have begun, to maneuver without the permission of Congress. Once that period has expired, if Trump does not ask Congress for permission, or if they ask for it but are not granted it, has 30 additional days to withdraw troops from the war scenario.

Without a plan

Vice President JD Vance, who supported Trump in the 2024 elections, arguing that the current president had never started any war, has closed ranks with his boss, saying that the United States has “the capacity to endure beyond” the four or five weeks planned if the conflict is prolonged. Vance – famous for his isolationist postulates and against war interventions abroad – maintains that this war differs from others because Trump “He has clearly defined what he wants to achieve.”

“A quick and victorious campaign, without troops on the ground, would go a long way to preserving Trump’s standing within his party, both in this episode and in possible future foreign policy initiatives,” explain analysts Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott in Traffic lights. “But a quagmire or a high number of casualties would weaken their political strength, especially with the midterms around the corner.”

Las midterms They will be held next fall and in them the American voter will determine which party will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate during Trump’s last two years in power. Currently both chambers are, by a minimum, in the hands of the Republican Party. Something that makes the president’s job much easier. However, the latest surveys indicate that the Democratic Party could regain control of one of themat least, and even both.

“With early polls showing majorities critical of Trump’s decision, it may only be a matter of time before the most vulnerable Republicans in both chambers of Congress begin to do the same,” say Everett and Talcott.