The conflict in Iran enters its fourth week in complete confusion and with no end in sight.
Yes Saturday night Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on social networks to the ayatollah regime to unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial navigation, this Monday morning it decided to extend said ultimatum for five more days, appealing to supposed “negotiations” that would be underway with Tehran.
This strategy is common for the American president: he launches the order publicly as a measure of pressure in the confidence that the rival will really accept a favorable agreement… but when he sees that this is not the case, he reveals an alleged foreign desire to negotiate and cancels his plans.
He has done it countless times with Russia during this second term and we also saw it with the imposition of tariffs on different countries or the announced sanctions on India for buying Russian oil. It is clear that Iran will not be an exception.
In this case, sources from the Iranian Government and the Revolutionary Guard have denied that these negotiations have taken place and attribute the postponement to a panic attack by Trump when he saw that oil prices could skyrocket… without ruling out an attempt to get Tehran to lower its guard and attack like this at any other time.
We have also seen the latter twice, both in June 2025 and on February 28, when after transmitting good feelings in the Doha and Geneva talks respectively, the United States joined Israel’s attacks against Iranian facilities.
Gain time
Several hypotheses are open to us here: the first is that Trump is telling the truth and, indeed, there is a part of the regime, although we do not know which one, that is negotiating not with the United States directly, but with mediating countries such as Türkiye or Pakistan.
In that sense, the news portal Axios published this Monday that the vice president J.D. Vance had directly informed Benjamin Netanyahu that an agreement to end the war could be imminent.
The Israeli prime minister acknowledged this Monday that he had spoken with Trump, and that the White House tenant hoped to “take advantage of the formidable gains made by the IDF and the American armed forces to achieve the objectives of the war through an agreement, an agreement that preserves our vital interests.”
The second is that it is Iran that is telling the truth and its position continues to be that of not negotiating, as its terrorist militias of Hamas and Hezbollah have done over the last two and a half years despite suffering a huge number of casualties and having to remake their organization several times.
If this were so, the credibility of the United States and its ability, therefore, to impose pressure on the regime, would be evident.
The third, perhaps the most likely, is that, once it has been seen that the threats of destruction do not serve to force Iran to open Hormuz, Trump has decided to delay the attack, not for a diplomatic matter, but purely for a strategic one from a military point of view.
Within five days, the 2,500 marines sent to the area will be ready to deploy. Throughout the week, a better response to possible Iranian retaliation can be organized, and, in addition, Trump usually attacks on Fridays because that is when markets close in practically the entire world.
Is there a “civil branch” willing to agree?
Asked hours after his announcement about the negotiations and who would control the Strait of Hormuz, Trump gave a truly surprising answer: “Probably me… and whatever ayatollah there is. They have no one left in the leadership.”
It is understandable that it is a response prepared to hide the true intentions: the ayatollahs are not going to share control of Hormuz with the United States, nor would it make much sense for the United States to do the same with a regime that has advocated its destruction since 1979.
It is also not true, no matter how much it is repeated, that Iran does not have leaders to represent it. In fact, if it were true, the United States or the mediator on duty could not have negotiated with anyone.
Beyond the mysterious state of health of the new supreme leader, hoyatoleslam Mojtab Jameneithe president Masud Pezeshkian He is still alive and in charge of the country, as is the Minister of Foreign Affairs and participant in the Geneva negotiations, Abbas Araghchi.
Another of the survivors is the current president of Parliament, Mohammed Baqer Alibafa former commander of the Revolutionary Guard whom observers place as the great continuator of the efforts of the disappeared Ali Larijani for keeping the defenses of the Islamic Republic standing.
Could the “civilian branch” of the regime be looking for a way out of what Delcy Rodriguez? That is what the US Government seems to be implying, but there is no evidence in their statements that suggests this beyond the fact, precisely, that they are still alive.
At this point, it seems unthinkable not only that Trump could allow the Iranian nuclear program to recover, but that fundamentalism continues to rule the country.
Markets take the bait
In Israel, of course, they are clear about the latter and this Monday the attacks against Iranian military targets continued.
Netanyahu pledged last Thursday to respect Trump’s “advice” not to attack more power plants or oil refineries after what happened in the South Pars gas field.
Now, if Trump distanced himself from the operation, said commitment would automatically be revoked. Israel has a good relationship with the Arab monarchies, but not at the level of the current White House.
That said, it is not likely that Trump will remove himself from the military equation now.
Delaying the ultimatum by five days seems more like a way to buy time and relax the markets.
The price of Brent oil fell this Monday by more than 10%, reaching below $100 a barrel. It is still a lot compared to the 60 it cost before the war… but it is a relief compared to the almost 120 that were seen last week.
Taking into account, furthermore, the little value that Trump gives to the given word, the Iranian regime will undoubtedly be aware that the specific figure of five days could well become three or seven depending on needs.
In other words, on Wednesday or Thursday the situation can take a 180 degree turn again without even having to wait for the weekend.