Trump explodes against allies and threatens to leave NATO that would cause even more internal problems

In the middle of the third week of war, Trump wanted to respond to the criticism of the former head of the fight against terrorism, Joe Kentwho resigned this Tuesday because he considered that the intervention in Iran was caused by pressure from Israel and not by the needs of the United States.

“He always seemed like a good guy to me, but I’m glad he’s no longer with us because Iran is a big threat,” said the president.

Trump was also highly critical of his NATO and Southeast Asian allies. “They could have sent a couple of ships to clear the strait of mines, but not even that,” lamented the New York billionaire, who assured that he already imagined such a response.

Hours before, on his social network Truth, he had stated that the United States is the most powerful country in the world and that it does not need help from anyone… no matter how much it does not stop asking for it.

Asked about a possible exit from NATO, Trump stressed that he is thinking about it, although that is not a presidential attribution.

It would need a two-thirds majority of the Senate or for both chambers to approve a law on the matter by a simple majority.

Although right now the Republican Party has said majority, it is not at all clear that all its senators and congressmen will vote in favor of a measure that goes against what their party has defended in the last seven decades.

The risk of opening an even bigger fracture in the GOP is immense and the possibility that he will not achieve his goal in the end would cause him enormous personal harm.

Furthermore, everything would have to be done with a certain speed, since in November there will be elections to renew the entire House of Representatives and approximately half of the Senate. The new Congress would assume its functions from January 2027.

Goal divergence

Trump again insisted on the alleged asymmetry with respect to Ukraine, stating that the United States had helped the Government of Volodímir Zelenski and now his European partners were refusing to support him in Iran.

It is only partly true: the United States, as a country, was on kyiv’s side for almost three years.

Now, since Trump’s arrival at the White House, almost all of his efforts have been aimed at making Ukraine surrender and Russia achieving a good part of its objectives.

What remained unclear was exactly what objectives remain pending in order to withdraw their aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf and recover normality.

He cited, as always, the destruction of Iran’s anti-aircraft defenses, the sinking of a good part of its navy and the decapitation of its leadership, but he was not precise when it came to specifying what has to happen beyond the now famous “that Iran is not in a position to ever have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump is aware of the risks of war in domestic politics, not only because of what Kent’s resignation and his own vice president’s reservations imply. J.D. Vancebut because of what a rise in energy prices could mean for the American consumer and voter.

Therefore, you need to finish this intervention as soon as possible and sell it as a success. It is not at all clear that both things are compatible.

For its part, its great partner in this company, Israel, has other objectives in mind. Iran is not a distant threat whose regime may or may not make a nuclear weapon.

Iran, for the Jewish State, is an existential enemy that finances the terrorist groups that then send their projectiles against its territory.

Netanyahu is clear—as are, on the other hand, almost all GOP “hawks”—that this will not change if there is no change of leadership in the Persian country.

“Now or never” for Netanyahu

In this context is framed the operation that was launched in the early hours of Monday to Tuesday against several senior representatives of the Iranian administration and that ended the life of Ali Larijanisecretary of the Supreme National Security Council and considered the real brain behind the entire ayatollah regime.

Larijani would have been key in the continuity of coercive policies for decades and in the recent murder of thousands of protesters by the Revolutionary Guard.

Larijani’s death is a blow to the regime’s buoyancy, similar to those that Israel has previously dealt to the leadership of Hamas or Hezbollah.

Probably, we are talking about a less symbolic murder than that of Ali Jameneibut of much greater practical importance.

Although the new supreme leader, Mojtab Jameneihas declared that “this is not the time for peace negotiations”, there is no doubt that Iran is in a very delicate situation right now.

Precisely for this reason, Netanyahu senses that he is facing a “now or never” situation regarding the Shiite regime.

What he does not know well, as he did not know in the offensive against Hamas in Gaza, is how to take the next step.

In other words, how to get Iran to fall into the hands of moderates who will change their country’s foreign policy and bring it closer to the Arab monarchies, with which Israel currently has an excellent relationship.

If Trump refuses to send troops to overthrow Khamenei and company, everything will rest on the possibility of an internal rebellion.

Not on the part of the Revolutionary Guard, which has always boasted absolute loyalty, but perhaps on the part of the regular army.

The possibility of a popular insurgency, despite the fact that Israel has publicly called for it, actually does not have much room to go.

No matter how weakened the regime is, there will always be bullets for the defenseless.

Furthermore, it remains to be seen whether certain major errors such as the bombing of a school will not have activated the nationalist mechanism of adhesion even among the opponents.

A prolonged conflict?

Likewise, while Trump has an eye on the markets to ensure that the price of oil does not skyrocket, Israel has bombed refineries and does not have the same regard.

Anything that serves to strangle Tehran politically and economically is considered a greater good.

The United States, on the other hand, is involved in too many things right now: fights with Western allies, negotiations with the Government of Miguel Diaz-Canel in Cuba, the proximity of the legislative elections…

It would not be crazy to think that, no matter how much we insist on Trump’s supposed submission to Israel’s interests, in the end he would leave things bogged down and it would have to be Netanyahu who, in one way or another, finished the operation.

Now, despite the aforementioned good relationship, Israel is not going to worry about Iranian retaliation against Arab countries nor will it have world markets as a reference.

If we add to that the inability to send troops, we are faced with the possibility of the conflict festering for a long time.