two weeks of bombing and bridgeheads on the islands

The idea is to create “bridgeheads” along the Iranian coast of the Strait of Hormuz and seize Jark Island, where 90% of the fuel Iran exports is processed.

It is not yet known if the 2,500 marines mobilized for the operation will be enough for this. Epic Fury or if it will be necessary to resort to more units from the different US bases distributed throughout the region.

Nor is it known exactly how or when these strategic enclaves along the Persian Gulf will be taken.

Just in case, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegsethformalized this Thursday the request to Congress for 200,000 million dollars to finance the operation.

“We have many troops, we have unlimited ammunition, we have the best equipment in the world and we are decimating Iran,” Trump himself boasted this Friday.

Rumors that have reached the American press speak of just over two weeks of intense bombing of those specific areas to then begin an amphibious operation.

Trump continues to trust, as always, that, with the seizure of Jark – he already threatened at the time to destroy its oil facilities if the regime attacked Qatar again – the Iranians will sit at the negotiating table ready to accept whatever is offered to them.

It is a dream that already marked his first term, when he unilaterally left the nuclear agreement between the ayatollahs and Barack Obama just to try to sign a better one.

For much of 2019, he did everything possible to reach an agreement and it seems that all his forceful measures since then have been in that direction, including the assassination of the general Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, the bombing of nuclear facilities in June 2025 and the current open war since February 28.

The allies are approaching

There is no evidence, however, that the Tehran regime wants to reach any agreement.

Hamas, an Iranian-sponsored terrorist militia, only relented after two years of brutal bombing, and yet no one has ousted it from power in Gaza.

The statements of the top Iranian leaders go rather in the opposite direction to a negotiation: they seem delighted with the attempted land invasion by the United States.

The capture of Jark Island and the military installation on Iranian territory poses an enormous risk for the United States. Can they accomplish their mission with 2,500 elite troops? Probably, yes, but we already took that superiority for granted.

The issue, as always in this war, is what to do next. If Tehran decides not to negotiate, but to bomb those positions, either with missiles or drones, how many casualties would American civil society be willing to tolerate?

Hence Trump’s enormous anger with his European NATO partners, whom he once again called “cowards” this Friday for their refusal to participate in the so-called “Hormuz Coalition.”

Although it is true that, in recent days, it seems that the positions are getting closer for some type of joint defensive action, the truth is that no one wants to enter into open war with Iran due to the reprisals that this may entail, both in the form of attacks on military bases and diplomatic delegations or through the activation of terrorist cells.

Soaring inflation

Trump insists on repeating that Hormuz is a simple operation and that the United States can undertake it alone or with the help of Israel and the Arab monarchies.

This clashes with the pressure to which he is subjecting his allies and with any calculation based on common sense: trying to control the Strait is only feasible if the idea is to leave as soon as possible.

If they had to stay, as we said, any soldier installed would become a relatively easy target.

Now, it’s not like Trump has many more options on the table. Either Tehran surrenders or the United States is going to be involved in a long and very expensive conflict.

He can’t leave the operation halfway, with the ayatollahs still in power and the Chinese and Russians waiting to offer help as soon as the American planes disappear.

Nor can it allow the Strait of Hormuz to remain open only to Iran’s allies, because of the implications that would have on global energy prices and, by extension, the US economy.

It must be remembered that Trump made the fight against inflation one of his battlegrounds during the 2024 presidential election campaign and that he has repeated several times that, thanks to him, it is now on the floor… despite still being around 2-2.5%, more or less the same as in the last months of the Biden Administration.

An increase above 4% would plummet his popularity, which is already at its lowest in office.

The fertilizer problem

Be that as it may, any decision made will be late. Even if the United States manages to bomb and seize Iranian coastal positions in the Persian Gulf and key islands for the oil trade, it will still take some time for the ships to return to the Strait of Hormuz.

Its owners—whom Trump also called “cowards” for not daring to be shot by the Iranians—will have problems with insurance companies and will need time to see to what extent business becomes viable again.

Beyond the prospects that this extra time may bring for oil, it must be taken into account that the large part of the fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz and that we are about to enter a season of high demand.

If it is not solved – and it is not clear that we have time to do so – supply will decrease, prices will skyrocket and this will have repercussions on both farmers and consumers.

The shopping basket will necessarily become more expensive, which in turn will also push inflation up.

What will MAGA Republicans think of all this? It does not seem that, in the ranks of the Senate and the House of Representatives, Trump is encountering much opposition, but the voter is something else and the midterms They are less than eight months away. Some rabbit will have to pull Trump out of his hat if he doesn’t want to suffer a historic disaster.