Trump’s entourage prepares the ground to end the war in Iran, claim victory and stop his fall in the polls

If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be cut off and the Houthis resume attacks against vessels entering the Gulf of Aden, prices will grow exponentially around the world and, consequently, also in the United States.

After almost two weeks of war, the White House seems to be increasingly clear that there will be no Iranian “unconditional surrender.”

It is a scenario that has taken by surprise Donald Trump and advisors like Steve Witkoffwho already said at the time that he did not understand how the ayatollahs could not reach an agreement in the negotiations despite having the most important American aircraft carriers a few kilometers from their coasts.

Much of the blame may lie, in fact, on trusting someone like Witkoff or like Jared Kushnerson-in-law of the president, for very high-level diplomatic negotiations in which they have hardly any experience.

Kushner was part of the team that made the Abraham Accords possible in 2020, but that was thanks to his unbeatable relationships with key figures in the United Arab Emirates.

Ayatollahs are something else and it has always been better for wars to be avoided by those who know something about them.

Otherwise, one may find oneself in the current situation, in which, yes, the American Army is showing itself to be far superior to the Iranian one, but the end of the conflict is nowhere to be seen.

Something similar to what was seen for almost two years in Gaza, where the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not stop bombing the Strip, without getting Hamas to surrender.

In fact, even today, the pro-Iranian terrorist group continues to hold power while waiting for the Peace Board to somehow impose the announced interim government.

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That puts Trump in tremendous trouble with his voters. He had promised them that he would not enter any war thousands of miles away and that he would fix the inflation problem within a few months.

If you break both promises at the same time, your reputation will be seriously damaged. Leaders of media populism who supported him at the time, such as Tucker Carlson or, especially, the podcaster Joe Roganhave been harshly criticizing Trump’s “deception” for some time, unmoved by the official propaganda and its exacerbated euphoria.

Although the base of the MAGA movement, according to polls, continues to mostly defend Trump, the truth is that the war is very unpopular in the United States, basically because no one is quite clear about what the excuse is.

The Iranian nuclear program was supposed to have been annihilated in June 2025, why is this urgency now? Among Democrats, of course, rejection of the operation is almost unanimous. The problem for Trump is that only one in five independents supports him… and independents are the ones who give and take away elections.

In general terms, Trump’s popularity, according to the weighted average of the prestigious statistic Nate Silveris at 41%, a few tenths above when the most controversial images from the archives were published. Jeffrey Epstein…but almost a point and a half below when the war started.

The decline is bound to continue if prices rise, especially gasoline and fertilizers, which so affect the economy of deep America.

An Epic Fury every six months

Hence, in Trump’s environment, efforts are focused right now, on the one hand, on trying to justify the intervention and, on the other, on laying the foundations for an honorable exit that can be defined as victory.

The problem is that both things are often irreconcilable, that is, if the objective was to change the regime or at least end its leadership, it is impossible to celebrate the victory with Khamenei in power.

If it was to end Iranian military capacity, it is difficult to withdraw triumphantly while the Persians continue to block Hormuz with their mines and drones.

The last definition is that of the aforementioned “unconditional surrender… whether they recognize it or not.” A definition like this gives a lot of room, but it also requires enormous support from public opinion because it is absolute nonsense.

One cannot decide that the other has surrendered, although, according to Trump, the moment Iran has no missiles left to send, no drones left, and no factories standing to remake the arsenal, the defeat will be so absolute that it will be equivalent to a surrender. Benjamin Netanyahu He spoke out this Thursday in a similar sense.

This makes it obvious that, as soon as the United States ends the operation, Russia and China will arm Iran again, the regime will recompose itself, and we will have a Midnight Hammer or one Epic Fury every six or seven months, with the immense cost that this entails for the American treasury.

According to Pentagon calculations, in the first six days of war alone, expenses would have been $11.3 billion.

For a country with a public debt of 38.5 billion—with China as the second creditor, only behind Japan—we are talking about unaffordable amounts.

“When Trump decides”

No one currently knows what Trump wants to do.

In a telephone conversation with the G7 leaders, he was once again so ambiguous that some thought he wanted to end the war now and others that he wanted to prolong it for three or four weeks.

That was originally the plan, but in the current economic situation, it seems like a long time.

The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegsethalready said a couple of days ago, that the war will end “as soon as Trump decides” and it seems that the environment would be delighted for it to be as soon as possible.

Perhaps a military intervention on Jark Island, where Iran keeps a good part of its oil reserves, without bombing it or destroying these reserves, which would only worsen the problem, would be the success that would justify the end of the operation… but at the same time it would force the United States to leave part of its Army there and face possible Iranian counterattacks.

A nightmare scenario for MAGA isolationists, starting with the vice president J.D. Vancewho has voluntarily removed himself from everything related to this operation.

Everything else would be a leap of faith similar to June 2025.

Trump can say “they have no missiles left” and claim victory as he did then… but who is going to verify that and how would the president look if one of those non-existent missiles hit a US base in Bahrain or Kuwait and killed or wounded a soldier?

The risk of ending the war prematurely, without achieving any of the multiple changing objectives, is enormous: both for the stability of the area and for Trump’s own prestige.

Now, continuing it indefinitely seems like an even greater danger right now for the economy of the entire planet and, internally, for the Republican Party to hold its own in the elections. midterms November.

Iran politically ended Jimmy Carter and it can end Trump and the Republican Party barring a stroke of true genius.

The problem is that, instead of geniuses, the president decided to surround himself with sycophants incapable of saying no to anything. The consequences of such irresponsibility, sooner or later, had to become visible.