The success of the US-Israeli bombing campaign to reduce Iran’s military defensive infrastructure to rubble appears unquestionable. Two weeks of continuous attacks have resulted in the almost complete destruction of the Islamic Republic’s missile launch systems and Navy. But the objective of promoting regime change, Tel Aviv’s main desire, represents a greater challenge.
That is why Donald Trump, spurred on by his ally Benjamin Netanyahu, has not ruled out sending US troops on the ground in all this time, resurrecting the ghosts of costly wars on a human level for his country such as those in Iraq or Afghanistan… or Vietnam.
In fact, the Pentagon has made the decision to send an expeditionary force of more than 2,000 Marines to the Middle East. Although experts suggest that its role could consist of carrying out small raids along the Iranian coast to attack military installations of the Ayatollah regime that represent a threat to international transportation through the blocked Strait of Hormuz.
Donald Trump this Tuesday at the White House.
Reuters
The increase in troops in the region and the uncertain exit from the war despite the beheading of the Iranian military and political leadership has been used by Tehran’s propaganda to tell Trump that a hypothetical land invasion “would be another Vietnam.”
The American president, asked on Tuesday in the Oval Office about this probability, showed plenty of confidence: “No, I’m not afraid… Actually I’m not afraid of anything.” Their plans, after several contradictions about the final objectives of Operation Epic Fury, remain a mystery.
Although a ground invasion seems an unlikely scenario, in the White House there is great concern about completely eliminating the Iranian nuclear program. That is why a risky special operation is being considered to capture or destroy the enriched uranium, almost to levels sufficient to build an atomic bomb, which is stored deep in a mountain in Isfahan.
The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, acknowledged a couple of weeks ago before Congress that this mission, much more complicated than those that resulted in the murder of Osama Bin Laden in 2011 or the capture of Nicolás Maduro last January, could only be carried out by an elite commando. Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he is not worried about ground operations either.
According to The New York Timesthe head of the White House is seriously considering launching this operation. A few days ago he said he would only try it if the Iranian armed forces were “so depleted that they cannot fight on the ground.” On Monday he dodged a question on the subject by saying that he should not be president if he gave an affirmative answer.
Trump has gone from saying that the war would last four or five weeks to confessing that its outcome was imminent. Yesterday he once again assured that in Washington there are “many” plans for when the bombings are over, although without going into detail about any of them. Their argument for continuing the campaign of attacks is that “if we left now, it would take them [a los iraníes] 10 years to rebuild. But we’re not ready to leave yet.”
The nuclear threat is Trump’s burning nail to prolong a rather unpopular war on American soil. The operation, which would take years in the making, would be the only way out after having blown up diplomatic channels. In the latest talks in Geneva, Iran offered to lower the levels of uranium enrichment to that used in nuclear reactors and under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency, although it refused to allow the material to leave the country.
That is why it is not known with much certainty what the special forces would find under the soil of Isfahan. Trump also faces the threat that the new leadership of a more radicalized Islamic Republic after the massive bombing campaign throughout the country will now choose to develop nuclear bombs as a deterrent tool against future attacks.