“To be feared you have to be powerful”

There, the president has announced that “the number of nuclear warheads will increase” of France, although it has indicated that the figures on the warheads will no longer be revealed. “To be feared, you have to be powerful”he declared, after ensuring that he “will not hesitate” to use the nuclear arsenal “to protect the vital interests of France” which, he clarified, “do not stop at our borders.”

“We must consider our deterrence strategy in the heart of the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty, but with the progressive implementation of what I would call advanced deterrence“, he announced at the beginning of his speech. In this sense, Macron has advanced that the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark are already collaborating on this strategy, which “will be compatible” with that of NATO.

Macron’s speech is actually a continuation of the one he gave in 2020, during his first mandate, in which he already proposed to European partners to open a strategic dialogue on collective security. But the context now is very different.

To the threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia, four years after its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Now the conflict in the Middle East is added, where Paris has promised to act against Iran if necessary. In addition, China is increasing its nuclear arsenal – it is estimated that it will reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030— and the United States military umbrella, which for decades has served as protection, is no longer a completely reliable refuge. “We can no longer consider threats in isolation,” declared the French head of state, with a large submarine behind him and surrounded by soldiers.

The European umbrella

France is the only nuclear-armed member of the European Union, with nearly 300 officially declared nuclear warheads. And although it is part of NATO, it maintains complete sovereignty over its nuclear arsenal. That is, in times of peace, it is not integrated into the defense of the allies.

In this sense, since his arrival at the Elysee Palace, Macron has promoted a “comprehensive renovation” of its nuclear forces. Furthermore, it has promoted the “European dimension” of its deterrence, based on the idea that Paris considers that European security is part of France’s vital interests and that, therefore, the region should benefit from the coverage of its atomic weapons. Ultimately, it is about expanding coverage.

Recently, Germany, immersed in an unprecedented change in its defense policy, has shown interest in the proposal. Indeed, during the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that he had begun talks with his French counterpart on the development of a European nuclear umbrella. However, this European dimension has been especially realized in the cooperation with the United Kingdom, which has an arsenal of 225 nuclear warheadsaccording to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

In any case, French nuclear doctrine makes it clear that the nuclear coverage offered to other European countries does not contemplate foreign participation. And the use of atomic weapons is a sovereign decision of France, and in fact, the only one who can “press the nuclear button” is the President of the Republic.

In this context, and considering that the far-right National Rally party (RN, for its acronym in French) could reach the presidential palace in the 2027 elections (according to the latest polls), Macron seeks to implement measures that are not easily reversible due to the formation of Marine Le Pen, very critical of NATO and opposed to ‘giving up’ French nuclear weapons in any way.