the large numbers that move just before military operations

The analyst worked for the financial consulting firm Morgan Stanley. According to Financial Timesordered a massive asset purchase of IDEF, a financial derivative focused on the military industry. The transaction was intended to be done through BlackRockthe largest investment manager in the world.

The fund in question includes companies of the highest importance in the US military industry. Among them are Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX o Palantir. The latter develops AI programs for military intelligence applications.

These companies maintain a very close relationship with the Pentagon. In 2025, US defense spending approached $900 billion, around 14% of the federal budget. The proposal for this year exceeds one billion dollars.

The Pentagon is the headquarters of the Department of Defensewhose owner is Pete Hegseth. The Secretary of Defense has played a prominent role in the Iranian issue: he has been one of the members of the Trump cabinet who has most openly expressed himself in favor of military intervention.

Finally, the financial operation was not executed because the fund had not been enabled for customers of Morgan Stanley. It has not been revealed whether the broker acted on his own behalf or on behalf of the Secretary of Defense.

In the hours following the attack by the US and Israel on Iran, the value of IDEF rose 6.57%. A month later, it accumulates a loss of 13%.

Insider trading

One cannot speak of irregularity because the transaction was not completed. However, these types of operations close to high-impact events are susceptible to investigation by the regulatory body.

In the US it is illegal to buy or sell assets when you have relevant information that has not been made public. The Securities Market Regulatory Commission (SEC) pursues violators who risk facing fines of up to 5 million and sentences of up to 20 years. The penalties can fall on both those who use the information to enrich themselves and those who provide it.

Sean Parnellchief Pentagon spokesperson, declared this Monday from the X network that “neither Secretary Hegseth nor any of his representatives approached BlackRock about an investment of this type.” “This is another dishonest slander, designed to deceive the public,” he added.

It’s not the first suspicion of irregularities related to the war in Iran that is making headlines in the media. On Saturday, March 21, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “If Iran does not completely open the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours we will destroy its power plants.”

Well-founded suspicions

The threat was considered a serious escalation in the conflict and the reaction was immediate: the barrel of Brent exceeded 127 dollars. The ultimatum ended late Monday afternoon.

However, at 7:05 a.m. that same Monday, Trump announced that after a few good conversations with Iran, extended the deadline to open the strait for five more days. As expected, crude oil fell again and in a few days it was below $115.

Iran denied holding any type of negotiation with the US. Hours later, the channel specialized in stock market CNBC reported that at 6:49 there had been an unusual volume of asset sale operations related to the oil market for an amount of 580 million.

Financial analysts reviewed the levels of usual operations at that time of the morning in those types of values. In just one minute, between 6:49 and 6:50, 6,200 transactions had been processed, when the normal average is 700.

It seems clear that someone had inside information that saved them a lot of money. Mukesh Shdevchief analyst of the oil futures market at the consulting firm XAnalystsdeclared to BBC that “moving so much money when the price is falling raises a lot of questions.”

On Wednesday of that week, the middle Axios posted “Trump appears to be haunted by mysterious trading patterns in this war.” In his comments he cited that patterns seemed to emerge “suspects” of buying and selling around the president’s decisions.

Las online betting platforms They offer a golden opportunity to make money with inside information. Any event of public relevance can be used to play to guess the results, they are not limited to the sports field.

Polymarket is an example: from capturing Maduro to the death of verse Jamenei. Gamblers allocate fortunes to the twists of geopolitics.

In fact, the bets on Iran are only growing. According to reports Bloombergthere are already more than 500 million dollars in various variants of predictions about the conflict in the Middle East.

The US special envoy to the Middle East, Steven Witkoffcould be related to a very lucrative operation regarding the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. Witkoff is a partner at Donald Trump en World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a cryptocurrency business.

A few hours before the capture of the Venezuelan dictator, Polymarket recorded a position of $33,933.26 in favor of Maduro being “removed from power” before January 31. The operation yielded a profit of $443,815.28 in favor of the bettor.

Analysts found the coincidence of timing suspicious. In-depth research by technology experts blockchainsupposedly associated the accounts of these operations with Trump’s collaborator, although the evidence is not conclusive.

CNN reports that a New York federal prosecutor’s office I would be investigating cases like this. However, there is no evidence at the moment that the regulator is willing to study the cases reported by the media.