The keys
nuevo
Generated with AI
nuevo
Generated with AI
The vice president of the United States, JD Vance, will almost certainly be in charge of leading his country’s delegation in the negotiations scheduled for next Friday in Islamabad.
Vance, known for his theses isolationists and whose displeasure with military intervention in the Middle East has leaked repeatedly in recent weeks, will have before him the most important task since he took office: ensuring that the Iranian regime is willing to follow through on what has been agreed.
As the architect of the agreement in direct negotiation with the Pakistani prime minister, Shehbaz SharifVance will have to demonstrate to President Trump that diplomatic means can still give the results that are intended to be obtained through military means.
It won’t be easy. Despite the enormous relief that the announcement of a two-week ceasefire has brought to the world – and to the markets – there are still many unknowns that loom over the negotiations.
To begin with, the United States needs to verify that its interlocutors really have the capacity to fulfill their promises. In other words, the decision to accept the ceasefire comes directly from the supreme leader, Mojtab Jameneilike published this Wednesday by the North American press.
For weeks, suspicion has reigned that the leadership in Iran was divided between the civilian branch, headed by the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchiand the military.
While one seemed inclined to agree, the other continued bombing targets in neighboring countries and preventing passage through the Strait of Hormuz to freighters that did not comply with their conditions.
Khamenei is the only one with the capacity to bring order to this bicephaly, despite his poor health and his need to remain hidden. Now, that in turn poses another problem: communications are very slow, much slower than Trump would like.
According to sources, Khamenei receives the information and delivers the orders through a network of couriers who intends to defy the Israeli threat to end his life.
The question of enriched uranium
Next comes the question of what exactly is going to be negotiated. The United States and Israel entered this war with several objectives in mind. The main ones were to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, recover or destroy already enriched uranium, and irreversibly damage the ability to build more ballistic missiles.
As a result of the attacks, there was hope for a possible regime change, whether due to surrender of the current or product of a popular insurrection. The latter already seems ruled out and was never a realistic objective for Washington, although it was for Jerusalem.
The Vice President of the United States, JD Vance.
After five weeks of war, the only thing we know is basically what we already knew before February 28: the American army is far superior to the Iranian one… but not enough to “wipe the regime off the map” or bend its will.
If we analyze the objectives set, we find that there is still no news of the enriched uranium that could, supposedly, lead to the construction of a nuclear bomb in a few weeks.
Trump stated this morning that Iran had promised to hand it over or destroy itbut there is no confirmation from Tehran in this regard.
It is not even known exactly where it is, since it is assumed that the underground laboratories where the reserves were kept were destroyed in the attacks of June last year and the International Atomic Energy Agency doubts that they can be physically accessed.
In that sense, we are facing a context similar to that of the negotiations in Oman and Geneva last February, only that the United States trusts that the military demonstration has made more receptive to Iranians.
The fear of Netanyahu and the Arab countries
Regarding weapons production, it is clear that the damage is abundant and that it will be difficult for Iran to return to previous rates and quantities. Now, with the guaranteed support of Russia and China and with the theocratic regime in place, sooner or later you will get it.
The ball is once again in Iran’s court and it is up to them to reach an agreement on the matter. An agreement, on the other hand, is very difficult to verify and may force new bombings every few months.
Although President Trump and his advisors have insisted since the first week that the enemy’s missile and drone stockpiles had been destroyed, the truth is that Iran has continued attacking targets in Israel and Qatar until this very Tuesday.
It is not known exactly what the current logistical capacity of the regime. The fact that they have accepted a ceasefire, however, suggests that it must not be very high.
All this greatly worries the Arab countries and Israel. The fear that Trump will reach a agreement similar to that of Barack Obama in 2015 and remove the pressure on Iran is enormous.
Since before the Abraham Accords of 2020the collaboration between the Arab countries and the Jewish state has been total with respect to the common enemy: the Iranian Shiite fundamentalism. That said, they need the deterrent threat of the United States to ensure their security.
We know that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohamed Bin Salmanthey pressured Trump until the last moment to maintain the military threat and not give up a ceasefire.
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.
Reuters
For now, Israel has committed to respecting the truce and not attacking targets in Iran. This may change if given the opportunity. In fact, it will continue with its operation in Lebanon against Hezbollahthe terrorist organization that depends directly on the Persian country.
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz?
Without regime change, without destruction of enriched uranium and without the total elimination of stockpiles of ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads and whose range allows them to reach Israel, the White House changes the media focus on Hormuz.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to free trade is an issue that, in essence, is nothing more than a consequence of the attacks and in no way their cause. Iran appears to have committed to reopening the pass… provided its armed forces maintain control over it.
That is an important and dangerous development. Just as the United States has demonstrated its military superiority, Iran has found along the way a economic lever which until now had not decided to activate.
In Pakistan, Vance will have to convince his interlocutors to return to the previous situation and forget about tolls which will only fill the regime’s coffers and will serve to finance, ironically, the same international terrorism that this military operation was intended to decimate.
To say it’s not going to be easy is an understatement.. Iran is not going to give up such an important strategic advantage just like that. In return, he will demand security guarantees that Israel and the United States are unlikely to be able to meet.
It is not even clear that, at this point, the regime trusts any agreement with Trump, since He has attacked them twice in the middle of peace negotiations.
The situation, in short, remains confusing. Iran’s ten-point plan went from “maximalist” on Monday to “significant” on Tuesday and, after frenetic negotiations with Pakistan, has become in the negotiation framework.
In other words, The conditions are no longer imposed by the United States but Iran, and the White House will have to see which ones it accepts and which it doesn’t. All this, after six ultimatums and threats the likes of which the world has not known since World War II, leaves for the moment more doubts than certainties.
You may also like
-
Parrot dies and his lovebird won’t leave him: video moves
-
The US leaves Islamabad “without an agreement” and marks the Iranian renunciation of nuclear weapons as the main “red line”
-
Adorni, chief of staff, right-hand man and spokesman, charged with illegal enrichment
-
The EU is risking its strategic autonomy against Putin, Trump or Netanyahu in the Hungarian elections
-
Vance negotiates with Iran and Trump boasts that US ships are already clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines