The EU is risking its strategic autonomy against Putin, Trump or Netanyahu in the Hungarian elections


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The elections in Hungary could end 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán, with the opposition Péter Magyar as the favorite in the polls.

The EU is risking its strategic autonomy against figures like Putin, Trump or Netanyahu, since Orbán has blocked key decisions on Ukraine and sanctions on Moscow.

Orbán and his government are accused of eroding the rule of law and leaking confidential information to Russia, alarming European leaders.

If the opposition wins, Hungary could once again be a pro-European partner; If Orbán remains, the EU could activate Article 7 to isolate Hungary.

Although most surveys They give the opposition leader the winner in this Sunday’s elections in Hungary Péter Hungarian (with a 10-point advantage, according to the average) and point to the end of 16 consecutive years of the ultranationalist Viktor Orbán in power, in Brussels no one trusts.

And the Hungarian elections have a relevance that far exceeds the weight of the country. The EU is risking its strategic autonomy, its ability to act against Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump o Benjamin Netanyahu. The three They actively support Orbán’s re-electionwhich It has acted as its Trojan horse within the bloc and uses its veto power to try to erode it from within.

Only in recent weeks, Orbán has alone blocked the 90 billion loan intended for support Ukraine in the face of the Kremlin’s war of aggression -returning from his favorable vote in December-; has paralyzed the twentieth package of sanctions against Moscow; and has also stopped punitive measures against violent Israeli settlers.

Added to this is the sustained deterioration of the rule of law: Government pressure on judicial independence, structural corruption, misuse of European funds, suffocation of non-affiliated media, de facto ban on Pride marches and other attacks on civil society. The European Parliament describes Hungary as an “electoral autocracy.”

All anti-European radical right forces – integrated into the group Patriots for Europe – support Orbán. But what has most alarmed European leaders are the latest journalistic investigations that suggest that both the Hungarian leader and his Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártóthey leak to the Kremlin, in real time, the content of the discussions in Brussels, including confidential documents.

Although the Hungarian Government has converted the attacks on the EU and Ukraine in the central axis of his campaigncommunity institutions have opted for a low profile, avoiding any movement that could provide ammunition in the final electoral stretch. In just the last few days, Brussels has described as “extremely worrying” the possibility that Orbán is conspiring with Putin against the bloc.

“The vote of April 12 will be the most important for the EU in 2026: what is at stake is that the European Union can emerge stronger, or that it remains fractured and slow to act, weighed down by Hungarian obstruction,” the researcher from the Centre for European Reform Zselyke Csaky.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during a European Council

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during a European Council

European Union

If the opposition wins, an opportunity would open which could allow the EU to advance on important issues of foreign policy, enlargement – since Orbán also alone vetoes any progress in kyiv’s accession to the community club – and sanctions,” says Csaky.

Péter Magyar (a former Orbán man who publicly broke with the government just two years ago following a controversial pardon scandal involving his ex-wife) promises to end the politics of vetoes, restore compliance with the rule of law, unlock frozen European funds and reposition Hungary as a predictable, pro-European partner.

However, most analysts agree that the leader of Tisza – already integrated into the European People’s Party– would have enormous difficulties in reversing Orbán’s political drift, as illustrated by the complications faced by Donald Tusk in Poland.

If, on the other hand, Orbán remains in power, the EU will finally have to define a strategy“, highlights the researcher of the Centre for European Reform.

Until now, neither the multiple infringement procedures, nor the freezing of up to 18 billion euros in European funds – to which is added the SAFE credit of 17,000 million for Defensealso paralyzed – nor Orbán’s isolation in the debates on Ukraine have managed to stop Budapest’s authoritarian drift.

European leaders only have the ‘nuclear option‘, Article 7 of the Treaty, which would allow the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights in the EU. The European Parliament activated this mechanism in 2018, but so far the Member States have not made progress in its application.

To deprive Budapest of the vote (a move with a burden equivalent to that of a expulsion from the club), unanimity of the other 26 Member States is required. But Orbán first benefited from the protection of the radical right Polish government of Law and Justice and can now count on the Slovakia of Roberto Fico.

“It is clear, especially in light of recent leaks showing a close relationship between Orbán and Putin, and between Szijjártó and Lavrov, that Hungary is doing Russia’s dirty work within the EU. That seriously undermines the unity and security of the bloc“says Csaky.

“Therefore, if Orbán is re-elected, the EU will have no choice but to confront the problem country, suspend further funding, continue the Article 7 process and isolate Hungary to the greatest extent possible.”

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