Jark, the Iranian oil island that Trump cannot destroy without causing a ‘shock’ in world trade

The Jark Island It is the distribution center for Iranian crude oil to the rest of the world. Most of the oil extracted in that country leaves through the terminals of this enclave and China is, by far, its main customer. It is estimated that 90% is exported to the Asian country.

Controlling Jark would be a one-man move. incalculable strategic value: it would strangle the ayatollah regime, dispel the fears of the markets regarding the barrel price and would give Trump the most powerful argument to negotiate the future of trade relations with Beijing.

But the 2,500 men and women of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit They don’t have it easy: the flotilla led by USS Tripoli It sails through the Indian Ocean on its way to the Persian Gulf, where it plans to arrive at the end of the month. To reach Jark you must first cross the now famous Strait of Hormuz and that, today, does not seem easy.

Until now, the military activity of USA and Israel has focused on the elimination of Iranian leadership and the destruction of military objectives. The regime is beheaded and its military capacity devastated, but control of the passage to the Persian Gulf remains in Iranian hands.

Iran only blocks maritime traffic to USA and Israel and his allies. In the last hours, the oil tanker Karachihas managed to cross Hormuz successfully, according to data from the tracker MarineTraffic. Other Indian or Chinese ships have also crossed the strait. It is estimated that only a few dozen ships have managed to pass since the war began.

The consultant Clarksonsan expert in maritime traffic and international trade, recently published an estimate on the number of ships that Now they sail the Arabian Sea. According to his calculations, around 3,200 ships would be ‘trapped’ within the Persian Gulf. Of them, 112 are tankers.

Reopening Hormuz would allow not only uncover crude traffickingwould also allow free access to the Arabian Sea for units transporting troops, a necessary step to face a new stage in the war.

Trump announced this weekend that “many countries“They were going to “send warships in conjunction with the United States” to keep the strait open. He expressly referred to China, France, Japan, South Korea, United Kingdom and “others.” The ‘invitation’ has received little response so far.

It is possible that the Republican president wants to put together a similar alliance to the one created in the previous gulf warbut his advisors must remind him of the end of the Iraq war: when Washington launched their ground offensive, the Iraqis launched their ‘scorched earth’ tactic, setting fire to hundreds of oil wells and rendering the facilities useless for years.

That episode destroyed the equivalent of 1 billion barrels at the rate of 5 million daily. The price of crude oil went from about 20 dollars per barrel to almost 50. A similar response by Iran in the face of a desperate situation cannot be ruled out.

Trump does not want to accept the responsibility for having ordered Operation “Epic Fury” to cause a global economic crisis as a result of drag the crude at the level of 200 dollars a barrel. You need to ensure a clean operation in Jark and, to do that, you must liberate the strait or change plans.

Understanding the gestures is important at this point: Iran has attacked infrastructure linked to the so-called ‘bypass of Ormuz‘, an oil pipeline built in Saudi territory. This installation and a similar one in Abu Dhabidivert the flow of crude oil directly into the Red Sea. If they were damaged, only the strait would be left as an exit point for the black gold towards the world. Iran wants to make it clear that this is not a “little excursion” as Trump said a few weeks ago.