Israel punishes Lebanon in its offensive against Hezbollah while leaving Gaza in the hands of Hamas

The sequence is well known in Lebanon. The Shiite militia entered the conflict last Monday in response to the death of the ayatollah Ali Jamenei with a battery of drones and rockets over Israel, which immediately launched a campaign of air attacks on the southern neighborhoods of the capital and the Bekah Valley, strongholds of Hezbollah.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took advantage of the situation to reinforce its military deployment in the so-called “buffer zone”, an area in southern Lebanon that remains under Israeli occupation since the ceasefire came into force in November 2024.

The war in the Middle East is now twelve days old, and it has no signs of ending in the short term, even though Donald Trumpneeding to cheer up the markets, assures that “it will end soon” because “There is practically nothing left to hit” in Iran.

“As soon as you want it to stop, it will stop,” the president of the United States declared this Thursday in dialogue with the digital Axios. The Israeli Defense Minister reaffirmed, however, that the ongoing military operation would continue “without a time limit, as long as necessary, until all objectives are achieved.”

In Lebanon, however, no one sees an end to the violence. The tandem that forms the president Joseph Aoun and the prime minister Nawaf Salam They want to break the curse, and call for direct negotiations with Israel to resolve the historic rivalry. Ultimately, the parties share the goal of disarming Hezbollah.

But the request of Aoun, former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, fell on deaf ears. Lebanese deputy prime minister Tarek Mitri This Wednesday he regretted Israel’s attitude, which avoids responding. Aoun and Salam demand a truce before sitting down to negotiate, and Netanyahu does not want to stop the attacks to mediate a word.

According to the Financial Timesthe window of opportunity to hold a round of negotiations in Cyprus was closed due to Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining the offensive at all costs. However, the public corporation Can assures that the conversations are taking place indirectly.

“The Lebanese are willing to talk to Israel, but under the condition of a ceasefire,” the British newspaper reported, citing a source. “Israel has so far refused and says it will only negotiate under fire“.

Meanwhile, fatalities accumulate in Lebanon. At least 634 people have lost their lives as a result of Israeli attacks in the last twelve days, according to the Ministry of Health’s count. The number of displaced people exceeds 816,000, and another 120,000 people remain housed in official shelters.

“Escalations usually translate into the destruction of infrastructure and economic assets whose reconstruction ultimately falls on the Lebanese population and international donors,” he laments in conversation with this newspaper. Leila Dagherdirector of the Public Policy Action Center at the Lebanese American University.

The economic advisor to several public positions explains from Beirut that “the costs of conflict are socialized throughout the country, although the decisions that trigger them are not adopted through state institutions or democratic accountability mechanisms.”

Paralysis in Gaza

In the rubble landscape of Gaza the situation is not much more promising. The fragile ceasefire, in force since last October, does not prevent victims from accumulating in Gaza. Israeli attacks have claimed the lives of 648 Palestinians. At least 16 have died since February 28.

The border crossing with Egypt was only open for one month after two years of total closure. The reopening of the Rafah corridor allowed the gradual exit of Gazans who needed medical attention, and also the entry of humanitarian aid trucks.

The war in Iran, however, broke the new normality that prevailed in the Strip, where Hamas is quietly rebuilding its administration prior to October 7, 2023. Israel was quick to seal off Gaza for fear of reprisals from the Palestinian Islamist group and its junior partner, Islamic Jihad, which for the moment have chosen to keep a low profile.

Their situation is delicate because the ongoing war confronts their main allies. Iran, on the one hand; Qatar and the rest of the Gulf petromonarchies, on the other. The leadership of the group is divided between those who want to get closer to Tehran and those who prefer the tutelage of Doha. Taking sides can bring undesirable results in the future.

The transition in Gaza has not yet started. Trump’s Peace Board was formally established nine days before the United States launched the operation Epic Fury.

The presentation event in Washington brought together around twenty world leaders. Only five agreed to send troops to form the International Stabilization Force (ISF), the body in charge of maintaining the security of Gaza.

The fifteen members of the Palestinian technical committee called to govern the Strip provisionally, under the tutelage of the body chaired by Trump himself, are still waiting for orders in Cairo to start working.

There is no defined calendar, and while the operation lasts Epic Fury the transition in Gaza is unlikely to move forward. According to Reutersthe Civil-Military Coordination Center (CCCM) in Kiryat Gat, southern Israel, has reduced its operations to a minimum since the start of the war in Iran.

The war in Iran managed to unite a weakened Axis of Resistance that, for the moment, remains standing waiting to know whether or not it has the Houthi rebels of Yemen.

Both Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad welcomed the appointment of Mojtab Jamenei as the new supreme leader of Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, hit by Israeli bombs on the first day of war, survived the offensive in which up to six members of his family were killed.

He suffered a broken foot, cuts to his face and a bruise around his eye, according to CNN. “I heard reports that Mojtaba Khamenei had been injured. I asked friends who have contacts. They told me that, thank God, he was safe and sound,” wrote the Iranian president’s son, Yousef Pezeshkianon his Telegram channel.