Ayatollah Khamenei’s plan for the regime to survive if Trump eliminates it in an attack

Not only on the military level, with ballistic missile launchers stationed on its western border and live fire maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery of maritime trade and global oil, but also on the internal political level. And in Iranian power circles there is already Possible successors to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are being discussed in case a US offensive eliminates the country’s top brass.

That could be, precisely, the objective of an eventual “limited attack” by the United States, which in recent weeks has deployed the largest military force in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq, 23 years ago. According to the portal Axiosamong the options Trump is considering is eliminating the Iranian supreme leader and to his son Mojtabaconsidered his heir. Without going any further, the tenant of the White House has insisted time and time again that “a change of regime would be best.”

This possibility is especially realistic if one takes into account that, during the 12-day war last June, the US and Israel managed to annihilate the top Iranian military hierarchy in a matter of hours. “Since then, Iran has been anticipating another round of conflict with the US and Israel, and at the same time as it is preparing for war, it is trying to advance nuclear negotiations,” he explains. Ali Vaezdirector of the Iran Project of the think tank International Crisis Group, in conversation with this newspaper.

The plan, according to sources cited by The New York Timescontemplates that elite units – including special police forces, intelligence agents and battalions of the Basij militia, subordinate to the Revolutionary Guard and in charge of repressing protests – will be mobilized to maintain internal orderestablish controls and detect possible espionage agents if tensions escalate.

But the strategy is not limited to defense and security. It also seeks to guarantee the political survival of the regime. In this context, Vaez notes that Ayatollah Khamenei has issued internal guidelines that establish “four levels of succession for the main military and government positions that depend on him. In addition, he has ordered key officials to designate several substitutes in case they are also eliminated.

The “Delcy of Iran”

And this is where it comes into play. Ali Larijani67 years old. A political veteran—he was president of Parliament for a decade—and former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Larijani currently serves as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. He has long been one of the Ayatollah’s trusted men. However, it was in January when, after the outbreak of internal protests and the intensification of American threats, Khamenei entrusted him with the management of the country’s internal security in a clear displacement of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Responsible for the violent repression against the protesters that left more than 7,000 deadAccording to HRANA, a prestigious Iranian NGO based in Washington, Larijani has been consolidating his role as the main person in charge of the state apparatus in times of crisis. At home, but also abroad, since it has granted interviews for Iranian and foreign mediaeven more frequently than the president.

Therefore, it is not surprising that in recent weeks his name has emerged in internal discussions as a possible continuity manager of the regime. In fact, according to senior officials consulted by the New York newspaper, the Iranian leaders would be looking for what They have called the “Delcy of Iran”in reference to Delcy Rodríguez, the Venezuelan vice president who took office after the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces and who is now in charge of negotiating with Washington.

The transition, in the hands of the Guardians

A prioriHowever, Larijani is not part of the possible successors to the position of supreme leader, since he is not a high-ranking Shiite clerica traditional requirement for that position. Now, some Iranian media reports suggest that Khamenei already has three successors designated. And although their identities have not been made public, there are those who do not rule out the appointment of a non-religious leader in a temporary transitional role.

“If Khamenei has already identified his successors, it would be to anticipate a leadership crisis in a system where today there is no figure with the same weight,” he explains. Daniel Bashandehpolitical analyst specialized in the Middle East and Iran, to EL ESPAÑOL. “In addition, if the chosen one comes from the political and not religious elite, the crisis of the velayat-e faqih“, he adds in relation to the “governance of the Islamic jurist”the doctrine that defends that the leader must embody both the religious authority and the politics of the regime.

Along the same lines, Ali Vaez maintains that the most likely scenario is continuity through “a new supreme leader or a temporary council” that assumes the responsibilities of the position. However, the International Crisis Group expert clarifies, “competition for power or a possible military coup at the hands of the Revolutionary Guard cannot be ruled out.” Bashandeh agrees that “Any transition will depend on the support of elite forces”.

Thus, in addition to Ali Larijani, the officials consulted by The New York Times They maintain that the commander Mohammed Baqer Alibafcurrent president of Parliament and former president Hasan Rushes —who had been excluded from the ayatollah’s inner circle—complete the list of possible administrators in the event of war.

However, the three would face public accusations for alleged corruption or complicity in human rights violationssince there are numerous accusations from organizations that attribute the deaths of thousands of unarmed protesters to state forces in just the most recent protests.