Iran is resisting better than expected after 20 days of war. The armed wing of the Islamic Republic maintains its daily attacks against the United States, Israel and the petromonarchies of the Gulf. It launches drones and missiles at a higher rate than military analysts had estimated in the early stages of the operation. Epic Fury.
“Iran has not reduced pressure; has rebalanced it within a prolonged strategy of attrition aimed at altering the energy nodes and eroding everyday normality,” underlines the analyst. Ibrahim Jalalwhich recognizes in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to the major victims of the conflict. Countries that, along with Israel, suffered Iranian retaliation on Thursday.
“The attacks with missiles and drones, although on the decline, have not stopped and it would be enough for a single drone or missile to achieve its objective for Iran to obtain a strategic victory,” he acknowledges. a recent report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington.
The Israeli offensive against South Pars, the section of the world’s largest natural gas field controlled by Iran and which supplies 75% of the country’s gas needs, caused the latest escalation of the conflict. The Revolutionary Guard struck back with another airstrike against Ras Laffan, the part of the same gas complex that belongs to Qatar.
The attack on the plant, responsible for supplying around 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas, caused “extensive damage” to the complex, but there were no fatalities, according to the QatarEnergy statement.
“South Pars and Ras Laffan are not two different and distant fields. They are, in fact, the same gas field, a single underwater geological structure shared by Iran and Qatar in the middle of the Persian Gulf,” he explains. Joan Escuerprofessor of geology at Carlemany University.
“The distance between the two is not a relevant factor since the geological structure is the same and continuous. The border between both countries divides what nature created as a whole,” adds the specialist. “Therefore, an attack on the infrastructure of one of the parties is considered a direct blow to the integrity and security of the main source of energy wealth of both countries.”
The damage was done, and the Revolutionary Guard decided to maintain the escalation by carrying out a battery of attacks against Israel’s most important refinery, in Haifa, and against another plant in the Saudi town of Yanbu, on the shores of the Red Sea, owned by the state-owned Aramco. Kuwait Petroleum’s Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah facilities did not escape reprisals.
The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchiwarned yesterday through the social network X that his country would show “zero restraint” the next time Israel and the United States attack its energy facilities. “Our response to Israel’s attack on our infrastructure used ONLY A FRACTION of our power.”
“The tit-for-tat equation is in force and a new level of conflict has begun,” wrote the current president of Parliament on the same platform, Mohammed Baqer Alibafanother of the strong men of the regime who is called to fill the vacuum caused by the death of the head of the national security apparatus, Ali Larijanihit by Israeli bombs in Tehran.
The ability to damage energy infrastructure and block circulation at will in the Strait of Hormuz are the main assets of the Islamic Republic to survive the war, the Achilles heel of the enemy, as demonstrated by the behavior of the markets.
Oil prices have skyrocketed 60% since the war began on February 28. Brent crude oil rose up to 10% this Thursday, reaching $119 per barrel, before falling to $110.
After the attack on Ras Laffan, the CEO of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida al-Kabiestimated the cost of damage to its facilities at $20 billion. The repairs will take 12.8 million tons of gas out of service annually for three to five years.
The alarm in the markets led the United States Treasury Secretary to say, Scott Bessantthat the White House was studying the possibility of “lifting sanctions” on Iranian oil already in the sea.
“Never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined that Qatar and the region would be subjected to an attack of this type, especially by a brother Muslim country, in the month of Ramadan, attacking us in this way,” Al-Kaabi himself lamented.
Aware of the seriousness of the escalation, Donald Trump He tried to distance himself from the operation. “The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way involved nor had any idea it was going to happen.”
“There will be NO MORE ATTACKS BY ISRAEL related to this extremely important and valuable South Pars field unless Iran recklessly decides to attack a very innocent party, in this case Qatar,” Trump said.
The two main Israeli newspapers denied the version of events described by the tenant of the White House. “The attack was coordinated in advance with the United States and… agreed between Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Trump,” it reported. Yedioth Ahronoth.
“President Trump spoke of the next Israeli attack on [la ciudad costera iraní de] Asaluyeh with leaders of three Persian Gulf countries over the weekend,” said the right-wing Israel Hayom.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He avoided, however, disavowing Trump. “Israel acted alone… President Trump asked us to stop future attacks and we are doing it,” he said at a press conference this Thursday.