An unknown post-Brexit United Kingdom moves towards extremes as support for traditional parties falls

The English electoral system was always designed with the idea that there were two large parties. Historically, Tories and Labor shared more than 80% of the votea phenomenon that has changed radically after this period of instability.

After Brexit, electoral volatility increased and this gave rise to the rise of extremes on both sides of the chamber. On the one hand, the old UKIPled by Nigel Farage, was key to pushing the process of leaving the EU.

Although he lost support after the rupture process was completed, his electoral space did not disappear.

Farage had to adapt his speech, with hard criticism towards the migration phenomenonwhich this time led him to achieve a seat in the House of Commons, with the re-founded Reform UK.

On the other side of the House of Commons are the Verdeswhich continue an unstoppable rise, as demonstrated his victory in the by-election in the constituency of Gorton & Denton, en Manchester

He Green Party of England and Wales, co-directed by Adrian Ramsay and Carla Denyer, is experiencing sustained growth.

Among the elements include aspects such as the young urban vote, old disenchanted with Labor and voters of racial minorities, concerned about religious freedom and its favorable discourse towards these minorities.

In all this, there are aspects that are changing the decision of voters when going to the polls.

It highlights the concern among the British about an economy that is not growing and illegal immigration, a key issue that traditional conservatives are not knowing how to manage in the face of the populist right.

Keir Starmer is not knowing how to respond to the main concerns of British citizens, which has caused his decline in popularity and voting intention.

According to the latest polls, if elections were held, the composition of the House of Commons would be very different from the current one.

A survey of Ipsospublished at the end of January, reveals that Eurosceptic Nigel Farage’s Reform leads the pollswith 30% voting intention. The populist right-wing formation maintains an 8-point advantage over the Labor Party, which would manage to maintain 22% of voters.

The traditional conservatives, the Tories, would stay below 20%, which would lead them to their worst historical result. The historic British right would fall five points compared to the 2024 elections, where they obtained the worst electoral support since 1832.

He Green PartyFor its part, according to this demoscopic study, it would achieve rise from the current 10% to 12%. It must be taken into account that this survey does not include the wear and tear suffered by the Labor Party due to the ties of an ambassador to pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

This Thursday’s result, in a constituency with a traditional Labor vote, such as Gorton & Denton, sheds light on the decline of bipartisanship. Labor lost the seat it had held since 2010 while the conservatives managed just 700 votes.

A majority system

It so happens that the British electoral system is peculiar. Award victory in each constituency to the candidate with the most voteswhich has always harmed the minority parties to the benefit of the two large parties.

For decades, the doubtful voter tended to concentrate their vote on one of the two great forces to stop the one they least wanted to see in the Government. But that useful voting logic seems to be weakening, opening space for smaller formations.

The historic two-party system hit the bottom last year by concentrating only 57% of the vote, a minimum not seen since 1910, although this figure is beginning to look favorable compared to today’s polls, which reduce their joint support to below 40%.

In 2024, the Labor Party took advantage of the electorate’s fatigue with the Conservatives and the distortions of the simple majority system to convert a discreet 33.7% into a comfortable absolute majority.

Despite having a comfortable majority in the lower House of Westminster, the executive is not being able to respond to the country’s problems. Starmer has also not been able to stop irregular immigration, despite having tightened asylum policies.

According to Sky News and figures of Home Officemore than 50,000 people have arrived illegally in the UK in small boats since Keir Starmer arrived in Downing Street after the July 2024 election, a much higher increase than his predecessors.

Given this, Reform has received more ammunition to campaign demanding a policy of greater border control and deportations of immigrants in an irregular situation.

Despite having only five representatives in the Lower House, the populist right-wing party is considered by many analysts to be the true opposition. The traditional conservatives have 121 parliamentarians, but they are in shock after his electoral debacle.

The strategy designed by Farage was repeat what they had already done before from the Labor Party. The eccentric leader, promoter of Brexit, does not need to be accepted by a majoritybut become the preference of enough people.

In any case, Reform also is suffering splits within the organization itselfwhich demand greater toughness in the face of issues such as irregular immigration, as well as harsh criticism of the growing presence of Islam in the country.

The British MP Rupert Lowe He has become one of the most uncomfortable figures in the sovereigntist space. Former owner of Southampton FCmade the leap into political activity as a MEP for the Brexit Party.

Despite having won the seat for the Westminster constituency, the Internal tensions between Lowe and Farage led to their departure from the party. Lowe pointed out that there were important disagreements about the political line they should follow.

Lowe maintained his seat, and far from diluting himself, he chose to redouble his strategy. He has founded a new party, Restore Britainwith which he promises “massive deportations” and proposes promoting severe restrictions to confront the expansion of Islam in the country.

In a context of enormous fragmentation and with the rise of populism on both sides of the Chamber, the 2029 electoral contest is presented as a predictable battle between Eurosceptics and the Greens, with a incessant fight with the underlying immigration policies.