the future political transition on the island

The president of Cuba, Miguel Diaz-Canel He told his political and military leadership details of the negotiations with the United States. “We talked, but we are still far from an agreement,” he said. What he did not tell is that ‘Raulito’ could be secretly talking to the Secretary of State Marco Rubio on ‘Cubastroika’: the future political transition of the island.

For Cubans it was a novelty to see Raulito Castro involved in political affairs. The usual thing was to find him a few steps behind his grandfather Raúl, wearing the olive green uniform of lieutenant colonelhead of the General Directorate of Personal Security of the now retired president.

Deborah Castro, the eldest of Fidel’s four nephews, she is the mother of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez ‘The Crab’. His father was the general Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Callejaa trusted man of his father-in-law and responsible for the Business Administration Group (GAESA), a conglomerate of companies controlled by the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR).

GAESA works as a ‘economic state’ in the hands of the military leadership. Manage the sectors most lucrative of the Cuban economy: tourism, retail trade, logistics, ports or finance. Created by him dictator’s brotheris a means to ensure military control of the economic and productive resources of the island.

Raulito, ‘The Crab’

According to his cousin Carlos Rodríguez Halleyresident in Miami, Raulito “was always very attached to his grandfather. He was the first-born of his grandchildren and when he was 11 years old he took him to live with him. His father I worked a lot and they barely saw each other,” he says.

He keeps the nickname from his childhood ‘The Crab’: Rodríguez Castro was born with a sixth finger in a hand that made it look like the pincer of these animals. According to sources close to the family, “it was operated small and there was hardly any scar left.”

studied at school ‘The Camilitos’specialized in training young Cubans to serve as officers in the Armed Forces. Afterwards, he moved to the University of Havanawhere he studied accounting and finance.

He grew up in a privileged environmentwith hardly any contact with the daily life of a country beaten for decades due to the scarcity and deterioration of public services. Like his brothers or cousins, he has been linked to the luxurious lifestyle typical of the ruling elite in Cuba, which also earned him the nickname ‘red prince‘.

There is no record of his entry date in the Armed forces or in the Home Officebut for more than ten years he has been seen accompanying his grandfather Raúl at public events as a bodyguard, his only known occupation.

He himself decided to carry out the role of his grandfather’s personal security. In 2016 he was promoted to lieutenant colonel and since the death of his father, his influence within GAESA has been increasing.

The historical context

On January 8, 1959, the ‘commander’ Fidel Castro triumphantly entered Havana. After six years of armed struggle against the dictatorship of General Fulgencio BatistaCuba became the first communist country in America. The United States found itself with an ally of the Soviet Union less than 150 km from Miami.

Raul CastroFidel’s brother, was the number two of the Revolution and the real architect of the military and economic power of the regime. was appointed Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forcesa position he held for almost five decades. It followed the Soviet model in which the army was established as the backbone of the State.

The Castros established a personalist regime with an inner circle that controlled the Government, the Army and the economy of Cuba. In 2008, Fidel retired at the age of 82, leaving his brother Raúl as successor to all his positions. In 2019, Miguel Diaz-Canel He held the presidency of the Republic.

Díaz-Canel is a 65-year-old engineer. After a brief period in the FAR he went into teaching. He developed his political career within the Cuban Communist Party to reach the Government in 2009 as minister of higher education. He was appointed vice president of Council of Ministers in 2012.

secret conversations

According to Michael PaarlbergAssociate Professor of Political Science at Virginia Commonwealth UniversityMiguel Díaz-Canel, lacks internal support. He is not a Castro, and his poor leadership in managing the economic crisis is recognized.

Unlike Venezuela, in Cuba there is no organized local opposition, nor a Maria Corina Machado waiting for his moment to collect the scepter. Only the military and members of the Communist Party are on the island.

Trump needs a quick negotiated solution because the situation in Iran is complicated. He has played hard with him cuban blockade and must resolve the crisis before the midterm elections. As in Venezuela, look for a Delcy to manage the transition.

‘The Crab’ is a valuable option: it is the right eye of your Grandpa Raúl and has the necessary connections with the inner circle of the Castroism.

From his father, he inherited a close relationship with Major General Ania Guillermina Lastrescurrent head of the GAESA conglomerate, who would give him access to control of productive resources. He would be in an ideal position to negotiate ‘Cubastroika’ with the US.

Paarlberg assures that the military would benefit the most for the ‘controlled opening’ of the island. Cuba lacks industrial or agricultural resources. More than 50% of the economy is based on tourism.

The hotel infrastructure It is broad, mostly promoted by Spanish companies, and follows a shared ownership model between private entities and a branch of GAESA.

“Raulito represents GAESA and the military wing profit oriented within the Cuban Government. It is this sector that would be most likely to reach an agreement with the United States, as long as it continues to make money,” says Paarlberg on the X network.

The Cubans would be willing to a ‘ideological reprogramming‘, but “this should not be confused with them being democrats,” he says.

The role of Marco Rubio

For him Secretary of State Marco Rubio is not just another negotiation. Born in Miami 54 years ago to Cuban parents, his political bastion has been the electorate Cuban-American and conservative Latino of the state of Florida. Closing a negotiation with Cuba would elevate him in his fight for the republican succession in the White House.

Outside its territory, it has not been able to consolidate a majority latino support. A recent survey shows that 44% of adults nationwide have an image unfavorable of the Secretary of State and 19% say not know him. If you want consolidate your candidacy For the 2028 presidential elections, he must recover lost ground.

Donald Trump can push his career towards the presidency: it is well known that the current tenant of the White House would love to spend another four years enjoying the luxurious ballroom that he has had built in the East Wing, but, if the constitution does not changewill not be able to repeat his mandate and needs to have a successor to protect him in the future.

For Trump it may be vital to ensure that upcoming elections They are won by someone who plays unconditionally in their favor. In the case of Marco Rubio, a successful and quick negotiation in Cuba, without noise, gunpowder or victims to regret, would give a notable boost to his projection towards the oval office.