Iran’s ballistic capabilities and US operational limitations threaten to prolong the war Trump expected

Although it is difficult to know exactly how many missiles and drones Tehran has at its disposal, the truth is that we are talking about a top-level military power that has been arming itself and in turn arming the different terrorist militias that it has been filtering throughout the Middle East for decades.

We do know that Iran has ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1,200 kilometers, the self-imposed limit to be able to attack Israel. It also has at least one type of hypersonic missile, capable of flying at five times the speed of sound, and countless Shahed drones, whose production has multiplied in recent years to meet its own needs and those of its Russian allies.

The problem with drones is that, despite their enormous usefulness at short distances from the front, as is being demonstrated in Ukraine, it is very difficult for them to harm targets that are hundreds of kilometers away. Too many interceptors have to be overcome.

Despite everything, aware of the limitations of its air defenses – Russian interception teams were already evident in Venezuela and the same thing is happening again in the Middle East – Iran has decided to confront this conflict not from defense, but from attacking practically all neighboring Arab countries.

In that sense, for the strategy to work and cause damage in those countries and shock their public opinions, the number of projectiles that must be sent is enormous… and in the Twelve Day War of June 2025 alone, it is estimated that Israel has already destroyed a third of the Iranian missile launchers.

The future of the ayatollahs in power will depend on their ability to manufacture more and at the same time reserve the weapons that are stored underground.

Rubio and Trump, balls out

In any case, it does not seem that this war is going to be a matter of days and there are several reasons to think so.

Trump himself, for example, hinted as much on his social network, Truth, on Tuesday morning, when he stated that the US reserves of intermediate weapons were practically “unlimited” and that he could spend weeks bombing Iran… but that there were more problems with the latest generation weapons, since Joe Biden he would have “given” them to Ukraine.

Leaving aside the falsity of the argument, since it is no longer worth entering into these issues, it seems that the president is warning his base that the conflict could be prolonged and that it would not be his fault, but that of his predecessor.

Like everything else.

Marco RubioSecretary of State and National Security Advisor, also made some strange statements this Tuesday in which he came to recognize that this war had not been sought by the United States, but by Israel, once again throwing the ball out of its possible outcome.

This accusation of bending to the interests of the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahuwhich has elections this year, has been repeated among various commentators close to the MAGA movement, starting with the former host of Fox News and well-known pro-Russian, Tucker Carlson. It is an accusation that could do a lot of damage to Trump among his most fervent supporters… and which, however, is not entirely true.

It is unthinkable that the United States would have gotten into something like this without the support of its Arab allies, who detest the Shiite ayatollahs with all their soul.

The great emirates, and even Saudi Arabia itself, long ago stopped seeing Israel as the main regional enemy and their foreign policies revolve around the threat from Iran. It is no coincidence that, in turn, Iran has launched attacks against them from the first moment.

The persistence of fanaticism

Beyond the purely quantitative issue, which, without a doubt, is of great importance, there is another factor that suggests that the war will not be short. It is about the fanaticism of the theocratic regime that has been clinging to power against all odds for almost fifty years.

As their terrorist factions in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas) or Yemen (the Houthis) have demonstrated, no matter how much the top commanders are eliminated, someone always emerges to replace them with the same voracity.

Maybe there was a miscalculation there and that is something that can happen when your diplomacy takes it Steve Witkoffa construction businessman with no prior experience.

Witkoff did not understand why the Iranians did not reach an agreement despite having them surrounded by aircraft carriers and he surely does not understand why they continue not to surrender despite having killed Ali Jamenei and have already caused almost a thousand deaths and numerous logistical damages.

The consequences of a months-long war – we are not talking about four years as in Ukraine because Trump’s attention span is usually limited to short periods of time – can not only be hard for the Republican administration itself, but can cause relations between the United States and Europe to suffer even more, as demonstrated by the aggressive statements this Tuesday by the American president regarding Spain. Some statements that were tacitly shared by the German chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The regime of the ayatollahs is also exposed to enormous consequences, but we are talking about a millenarian regime that sees a kind of salvation in martyrdom. Exactly the same thing that makes it unthinkable to let clerics have a nuclear weapon is what makes them so difficult to convince in a negotiation.

Their kingdom, they believe, is not of this world. And, consequently, absolutely anything goes.